Warehouses, Expert's eye
You will read this article in 4 minutes
For the past three years, Europe has been operating in a state of “permanent volatility.” The rerouting of maritime cargo from Asia to Europe around the Cape of Good Hope – rather than via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal – has extended average transit times by approximately 10–14 days and significantly increased freight costs. As a result, companies have increasingly shifted from a “lowest cost” model to a “highest reliability” approach. This is no longer a temporary disruption; it is the new structural reality of global supply chains.
Against this backdrop, Poland remains the leading warehouse market in Central and Eastern Europe. By the end of Q3 2025, total modern warehouse stock exceeded 36 million sqm. Gross take-up (including new leases and renewals) in the first three quarters of the year surpassed 4.5 million sqm, marking a 20% year-on-year increase. These figures confirm Poland’s structural strength as a logistics hub within the European Union.
Geopolitics and supply chains: structural shift or managed risk?
Geopolitics and logistics are increasingly interconnected. The disruption of maritime routes via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal has fundamentally altered benchmarks for delivery times and freight pricing. Routing vessels around Africa reduces effective shipping capacity and fuels freight rate volatility, with tangible inflationary effects across Europe.
In response, European companies are recalibrating supply chain strategies: optimizing inventory levels, diversifying supplier bases, and – where economically viable – shortening and regionalizing supply chains. In the Polish commercial real estate market, this shift is reflected in the growing share of light manufacturing tenants within total warehouse demand.
Moreover, the war in Ukraine has redirected substantial land-based flows through the so-called EU “Solidarity Lanes,” further reinforcing Poland’s position as a key logistics gateway within the EU. While these corridors have primarily supported military and humanitarian aid to date, any eventual freeze or resolution of the conflict is likely to generate significant demand for construction materials and consumer goods destined for Ukraine. This could translate into increased warehouse demand in strategic locations such as Rzeszów and southeastern Poland.
Strategic asset or elevated risk?
As a frontline EU and NATO member state – and simultaneously a logistics and manufacturing back-office for Western Europe – does Poland gain strategic relevance, or does it face heightened risk from the perspective of tenants and investors?
The overall balance remains favorable. Market scale and liquidity continue to attract capital. Warehouse investment volume reached EUR 873 million in Q1–Q3 2025, up 18% year-on-year, confirming the attractiveness of Polish logistics assets for long-term investors.
Poland’s geographic location – at the intersection of East–West and North–South transport corridors – remains one of its strongest structural advantages for distribution centers and production facilities. Successive iterations of the EU’s TEN-T regulations, which reinforce logistics corridors running through Poland and extend them toward Ukraine and Moldova, further validate the country’s role as a regional hub.
This does not mean challenges are absent. Uncertainty regarding developments in Ukraine and Poland’s proximity to the conflict increase insurance costs and can slow decision-making processes for new projects. However, stable occupational demand and sustained capital inflows suggest that Poland’s “location premium” continues to outweigh its “risk premium.”
Structural trends in the warehouse market
Looking ahead, the emphasis on supply chain security and continuity is likely to persist. In an environment of ongoing geopolitical and economic volatility, competition in the warehouse market is no longer centered on securing the “cheapest square meter.” Instead, competitive advantage lies in locations that minimize operational risk and enhance resilience.
Building safety stock in strategic hubs, diversifying and regionalizing sourcing, and embedding risk assessment into supply chain planning are becoming the norm rather than the exception.
Macroeconomic shifts are also reshaping spatial demand patterns. Prolonged weakness in German production and consumption has softened warehouse demand in western Poland. Conversely, growing maritime exports through the ports of Gdynia and Gdańsk have stimulated increased interest in the Tri-City region. After several years of slowdown driven partly by high inflation, Poland’s domestic demand and retail sales have recently rebounded, supporting warehouse take-up in distribution-oriented locations such as Warsaw, Łódź, and Piotrków.
Lease structures are also evolving. Tenants increasingly seek greater flexibility in lease terms, although developers – often constrained by financing requirements – cannot always accommodate such expectations. In this context, the role of an experienced advisor or broker is to reconcile frequently divergent interests between landlords and occupiers, ensuring commercially viable and strategically aligned outcomes.
For further insights or to discuss the Polish logistics and warehouse market in more detail, please contact the author of this commentary:
Przemysław Piętak
Head of Industrial & Logistics Agency Poland
M.: +48 515 383 065
E-mail: przemyslaw.pietak@pl.knightfrank.com
